Thanks for the link!
I wouldn't put any probability on it.
What I mean by null hypothesis is we simply have no idea. So we make the best guess based on the fact that the boat came from India. We create a hypothesis that she was probably U2c. Then we try to kick the daylights out of that hypothesis and see if we can disprove it. It doesn't mean we believe the hypothesis or we don't believe it. Nor do we give it a probability. It just means we have something to test.
But before we do that do we actually have a source for that? Do we know for certain 100% that she came on a boat from India? Or did the boat from from nowhere? Because I know I have a lot of ancestors who "came on a boat from Devon, England" and when I go to actually find a source for it I find there is nothing... so it would be a good time right now to see if there is an actual piece of paper like a ship's passenger manifest that records that she was a passenger, etc. Otherwise we're just making stuff up. And as Ericka knows I like to delete data that's made up.
And we need to know if these are both full sequences and not just marker tests. Because U is a branch off of N. And if N or U is just a guess we could actually be looking at the same haplotype - no joke. I doubt that's the case but we don't want to spin our wheels if these data are not full sequences. If they are not full sequences now might be the time to upgrade them because things just got interesting! With FTDNA you don't need to retest or re-sample - you just pay and upgrade price which is a deal.
How much fun is this?